Live conflict-risk scores, 0–100 · updated Mon 26 Oct 2026 14:29 UTC · Σ 1248 kinetic events in 24h vs 1215 the day before
| Country | Score | 24h trend | Events 24h | Most active |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 100 | ▼ easing | 99 vs 111 | Ukraine |
| Russia | 99 | · steady | 97 vs 98 | Moscow |
| Iran | 91 | ▲ rising | 115 vs 111 | Tehran |
| Yemen | 90 | ▲ rising | 90 vs 83 | Sanaa |
| Sudan | 87 | ▲ rising | 19 vs 11 | Kordofan |
| Iraq | 79 | ▼ easing | 19 vs 27 | Iraq |
| Saudi Arabia | 78 | ▼ easing | 149 vs 176 | Riyadh |
| Lebanon | 77 | ▲ rising | 16 vs 6 | Lebanon |
| Israel | 72 | ▲ rising | 91 vs 75 | Israel |
| Pakistan | 72 | ▲ rising | 55 vs 45 | Islamabad |
| Niger | 71 | ▲ rising | 15 vs 2 | Niamey |
| Syria | 70 | ▲ rising | 17 vs 6 | Aleppo |
| Afghanistan | 70 | · steady | 15 vs 17 | Afghanistan |
| West Bank | 65 | ▼ easing | 85 vs 131 | Hebron |
| China | 65 | ▲ rising | 50 vs 29 | Beijing |
| Nigeria | 59 | ▼ easing | 67 vs 70 | Taraba State |
| Venezuela | 59 | ▲ rising | 15 vs 0 | Caracas |
| Jordan | 58 | ▼ easing | 40 vs 55 | Karak |
| Kenya | 58 | ▲ rising | 22 vs 19 | Nairobi |
| India | 55 | ▲ rising | 88 vs 79 | Delhi |
| Mali | 49 | ▲ rising | 3 vs 1 | Mali |
| North Korea | 48 | · steady | 6 vs 8 | Pyongyang |
| Ethiopia | 45 | ▲ rising | 9 vs 4 | Moyale |
| Somalia | 45 | ▲ rising | 5 vs 2 | Somalia |
| South Sudan | 45 | ▲ rising | 5 vs 1 | Juba |
| Colombia | 42 | ▲ rising | 8 vs 1 | Colombia |
| Haiti | 42 | ▼ easing | 4 vs 11 | Haiti |
| Uganda | 39 | ▲ rising | 3 vs 0 | Kiira |
| Libya | 37 | ▲ rising | 2 vs 1 | Libya |
| Germany | 36 | ▲ rising | 7 vs 2 | Berlin |
| Burkina Faso | 36 | · steady | 2 vs 0 | Burkina Faso |
| Chad | 35 | · steady | 1 vs 0 | Golo |
| United Arab Emirates | 33 | · steady | 5 vs 7 | Dubai |
| Azerbaijan | 33 | · steady | 5 vs 6 | Baku |
| Guyana | 33 | ▲ rising | 4 vs 2 | Georgetown |
| Central African Republic | 33 | · steady | 1 vs 1 | Bangui |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 33 | · steady | 1 vs 0 | Ebola |
| Belarus | 33 | · steady | 1 vs 0 | Belarus |
| Qatar | 27 | ▼ easing | 3 vs 6 | Qatar |
| Oman | 24 | · steady | 2 vs 2 | Oman |
Scores are computed by World Watch every 10 minutes from machine-geocoded news events, a minute-latency breaking wire, GeoConfirmed footage verification, NASA FIRMS thermal detections and US State Department advisories. A country is scored only when corroborating signal exists. Event locations are derived from news reports — verify before acting. Not investment advice.
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